In mid-2008, many typical hundred-dollar feature phones sport a Touch Screen with handwriting recognition, MP3 Player, Camera, SMS and voice calls. How will the hundred-dollar Smartphone of 2010 leapfrog today's device? What compelling features will tempt the consumer to continue the typical 18- month upgrade cycle? It is important to point out the fundamental difference between a Smartphone of 2010, and the Feature phone of 2008. Today's feature phone is limited in its ability to execute simultaneous applications: a user can listen to the MP3 player or FM radio and receive calls or SMS. And this hits the ceiling of a feature phone's performance. No doubt, a huge leap over the voice-sms capability of the feature phone of 2000, but a far cry from Smartphone functionality.

By contrast, the Smartphone of 2010 will simultaneously support GPS navigation with spoken turn-by-turn directions, Web Browsing, Instant Messaging and Email; voice calls and the MP3 jukebox are piped through a Bluetooth headset. This level of simultaneous functionality ("multitasking") is enabled by a complex OS (operating system) such as Linux, Symbian or Windows Mobile. It is important to understand why a Smartphone will retail for $100. iSuppli [1], released analysis in December 2007, estimating that the iPhone cost about $155 to build. However, this includes two expensive optional components: $40 for 8 GBytes of Flash, and about $20 for the highly-specialized touch screen.

Therefore, a Smartphone could be built for $95 in early 2008. Mobile phone prices fall by at least 20% peryear, so it is easy to see that a Smartphone will cost just about $60 to build in early 2010. Next, we look at the ubiquitous features on the future Smartphone. For a generation of users addicted to the ease and informality of SMS, it may be heresy to even suggest that SMS will gradually be supplanted by two far superior technologies. First, it is worthwhile to examine some of the deficiencies of SMS.

• By definition a short message limits the user to about 150 English characters, or 75 non-English characters. Operators have attempted to work around this limitation, by taking a long message (greater than 150 characters) and breaking it into several short messages. This is not robust when recovering the message at the destination, because the sub-parts could arrive out of order or
• Though it is possible to send an SMS to multiple recipients,
  there is no indication in the actual message about the other
  recipients of the message. This makes organizing group events
  cumbersome, since individual recipients have no idea who else
  has been invited to the event.
• Sending multimedia attachments through MMS (Multimedia
  Message Service) or EMS (Enhanced Messaging Service) is
  possible, but not well standardized, and often does not work
  even within the same geographical location between different
  operators.
• Simple inquiries such as setting up a dinner appointment or
  hotel booking require multiple back-and-forth text messages -
  certainly not a productive use of valuable time.

Instant Messaging using MSN, Yahoo, Skype, Google, or other services allows quick simultaneous communication between multiple users, and is an efficient way to quickly communicate with groups, or have text based conference calls. Together, Email and Instant Messaging resolve all the deficiencies of SMS. GPS, Maps, and Location Based Services will be pre-loaded on Smartphones. As a reference point, the entire GIS (Geographical Information System) Database for China requires less than 1
Gigabyte of memory. This is a relatively small amount of memory, when compared with iPod-type devices, which typically use well over 4 Gigabytes of memory.

For automobile owners, the Smartphone will be used as a Navigation device; it will also be used to find empty parking spots, and find the best route through congested traffic.

For pedestrians and commuters, the Smartphone will compute subway and bus routes between a starting point and a destination. The GIS database typically contains information about Points of Interest such as Hospitals, Hotels, Banks, ATMs, Restaurants, Universities, Parking Garages, Entertainment, and Historic Locations along with full contact information, including telephone numbers. Search functions allow the user to specify a radius of search to quickly locate a nearby ATM, restaurant, or hospital.

Slightly cheaper devices without a resident database or dedicated GPS will use a Web Browser to access mapping services from Google, Yahoo or other providers by using an approximate location based on the Latitude and Longitude which is broadcast by the Cell Phone towers.

Silent Seamless Synchronization is the final feature which will be implemented with various levels of sophistication. To understand how this feature works, consider the fact that most consumers use a notebook or desktop computer as the primary repository of several indispensable databases: Contact Information (Name, Email, Phone Numbers), Appointments, Music, Picture Albums, and Important Documents (PDF, PowerPoint, Word, Excel). The Smartphone is used as the secondary portable device for the same information. To transfer and synchronize information between the computer and Smartphone, the user must go through a tedious process of connecting cables, launching software on both devices, and make decisions about what information is updated.

Bluetooth is a widely available wireless technology, which allows mobile devices and computers to sense each other's presence, and transfer data at a maximum rate of about 2 Mbits per second. With Silent Synchronization, the Smartphone will automatically detect proximity to the owner's PC - the primary repository of information. Bluetooth will wirelessly synchronize the Contacts, Calendar, Music, Pictures and Presentations, so that both devices have the most up to date information. Pictures that the user has taken during the day will be moved to the PC; new music, contacts and calendar entries will be updated on both devices.

The final feature which welds these features together is a powerful OS. The vast majority of Smartphones in 2008 use Windows Mobile, Symbian, or the iPhone OS. However, the Linux OS has been commercialized in several successful products from Motorola and Samsung. And Linux has one insurmountable advantage - it is absolutely free.

The four compelling features, namely, Email, Instant Messaging, Location Based Services, and Synchronization will be omnipresent in 2010. Rapidly falling component prices coupled with the free Linux OS will enable these features in the hundreddollar Smartphone of 2010, and will provide an irresistible pull for mass-market adoption.

These mass-market devices are merely smart; there will be a whole new class of Genius phones, which will authenticate the owner with a fingerprint, check into hotels and open hotel rooms with Bluetooth keys, board flights or purchase movie tickets using 2-D Bar Codes or Bluetooth, present discount coupons with 2-D Bar Codes, and provide credit card or electronic wallet functionality.

Smartphones of 2010 will simultaneously support GPS navigation with spoken turn-byturn directions, Web Browsing, IM, Email; voice calls and the MP3 jukebox